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Like the Grand Old Duke of York in the , President Sheinbaum of Mexico and Prime Minister Trudeau of Canada had ten thousand men and decided that deploying them with their big, bullying neighbour was a small price to pay to avert a trade war. Such a conflict could have cost them (and their neighbour) billions of dollars and plunged their economies into recession.

When the rule of law that governed the world trading system for eight decades is shattered and replaced with the law of the jungle, even the most basic laws of economics need revisiting.

With free trade, neighbouring countries are naturally inclined to trade more intensively, and . Conversely, smaller countries, such as Canada and Mexico in this case, may become highly dependent on exports to their larger neighbour (the US). This dependence is also a result of economic specialisation, with each country focusing on producing and exporting goods in which they have a .

As a consequence, Canada and Mexico’s exports have become , which accounts for 80% of their total exports. This outcome is efficient but also creates risks and dependencies—something the global economy experienced firsthand a few years ago when the overly efficient by COVID-19 and international conflicts.

The lesson from the short-lived trade war among the allies of the is that countries may need to diversify their trading patterns, prioritising resilience over efficiency to withstand unexpected shocks.

Against this background, we can appreciate the rationale behind the UK government’s strategy of maintaining a degree of equidistance between the EU and the US, avoiding overdependence on either of its major allies and trading partners. In this endeavour, Sir Keir Starmer may take comfort in President Trump’s words that issues with the UK and he may not need the Grand Old Duke of York’s army after all.

The UK has a relatively balanced trade relationship with the US, which exports more to Britain than Britain does to the US. The provides a more effective arsenal for retaliating against potential US tariffs. More importantly, given Donald Trump’s , a State Banquet in the Ballroom at Buckingham Palace may be worth more than ten thousand men.